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ROWLETT RAMBLINGS

Elections.......they are upon us.

4/30/2016

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,Well, it's that time again.   

We have a number of people wanting to think for us again.  That's okay.  That's the representative democracy we have.  However, it's still our job to decide who to allow to be our surrogate thinkers. 

It's a popular mis-belief that if you voted, you have done your job.   That's not quite true.  You are supposed to think before you vote.  Voting isn't hard.  Thinking is hard.  Now, I'm not going to tell you who to vote for.  That's your job.  However, I am going to share with you some of the things I think. Then, you can decide if I'm a crackpot, or not, and vote accordingly. 

Unless you're deaf, dumb, blind, and have an IQ somewhere in the 60's range, you should know that Rowlett is in a very important part of it's life.  It is the most important part of Rowlett's life since it's incorporation.  I would ask you to refer to the blog posts just preceding this one. 


In that blog post, I said I couldn't have written a better script for Rowlett.   Now, you must decide who you want to "play the hand." 

I can't think of a better set of circumstances to be given to Rowlett.  However, we have a lot of people trying to steer the boat.  Some I agree with, and some truly mystify me with their logic. 

I would like to turn the clock back about three or four years.  At that time, there were beginning to be rumblings about "form base codes" and "Rowlett 2020."  I was one of the few in Rowlett that knew what "form base codes" were.  "Rowlett 2020" seemed to be some marketeer's title for soap. 

In those days, we had a city manager that I thought was the worst real estate analyst I had ever seen.  She didn't even know lien priorities, assignments, or subordination agreements.  All of this is very necessary for real estate structuring.  However, to say that that city manager was "into" form base codes and Rowlett 2020 would be a gross understatement.   That would be the same as saying Mount Everest was a bump on the countryside.  In any event, that city manager was successful in creating a "dogma" that was inter-meshed with the Rowlett scene.  Believers of that "dogma" are still with us.  I don't think they're bad people.  I don't suspect them of any chicanery.  I think they are just wrong in not challenging some of the "dogma" that seems to be remaining in Rowlett's planning.

As most of you know, I am in the real estate development business.......as a bit player, not a developer.......even tho I have done some development for my employers.  As a player in the real estate development business, I talk to developers, lenders, contractors, engineers, and borrowers every single day.  I hear "stuff."  City Hall and staff do not hear the same things I do.....for an obvious reason.  You have to "play nice" to people that have control over the success of your business.  Tell me a contractor that says he can tell a city inspector what to do, and I will show you a contractor that is not long with a job.  To believe anything otherwise is extremely naive.  When I tell you some new businesses are upset with Rowlett's way of doing business, I am not lying.  Of course, we citizens are told it is all for the greater good.  I haven't seen any evidence of that, yet.

Once the previous city manager had the bit in her teeth, and had control of the check book, any consultant knew who to dance with.  The eventuality of form base codes and Rowlett 2020 was just a matter of time.  

Does that make form base codes and Rowlett 2020 bad?  Absolutely not.  I happen to be a believer in form base codes *when used judiciously.  I am also a believer in long range planning, such as Rowlett 2020, *when it doesn't stifle good growth.  The two asterisks above are where the rub is. 

Let's talk about Rowlett 2020, first.  There was a housing project that did not receive approval of City Council on the last meeting.  It was a 3-3 vote.  It was a tie because Michael Gallops was absent and the tie breaker vote was not present.  The three negative votes cited Rowlett 2020 growth plans as their  rationale for denying approval. They said almost universally that the goals of Rowlett 2020 were not met, even tho they said it might be 10-20 years before it is known if the plan was working.   It was also said, "the people of Rowlett approved (designed) Rowlett 2020."  The three positive votes created a tie, and ties lose.  I believe that some people on City Council didn't hear a damned word of what was said by the developer applicant. 

Let's talk about the people of Rowlett first.  I don't remember the exact numbers of Rowlett citizens that participated in the "charettes" that were the discussion phases of Rowlett 2020, however I seem to remember that the numbers were close to previous voting counts.  If I am correct, there were approximately 1400-1600 people participating.  Of those (say, 1500) people, not all were in favor of all conclusions.  There was some varying discourse.  So, lets say that 1,000 people were in unison about the final plan of Rowlett 2020.  Folks, that a long way from the 56,000 residents that populated Rowlett at the time.  When a politician stands up and represents that Rowlett  2020 was approved by "the people of Rowlett," it is a gross misrepresentation.  It misrepresents to the point of being laughable.  The politician that uses that language is just hiding behind a rock.  Another empty bowl of Rowlett 2020 that is used is planning for the future.  That is kinda correct, but horribly misused.  For example, one can not MANDATE that a certain property is going to be something else in 30 years.  At least, not in the real estate market.  Things change.  The secret to good long range planning is to take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves while still not violating the overall goal of the plan.  If the market calls for high quality, upscale housing, does it make sense to hold out for a McDonalds?   Just because McDonalds is in the long range plan, doesn't mean its going to happen.  

There is another thing that comes into long range planning.  It is a concept that appraisers use.  It is called "highest and best use."  Some people are showing off when using the term without knowing what it means or how to use it.  Our previous city manager used it erroneously and other members of "officialdom" picked up it's incorrect use.  Appraisers use it right.  Essentially, "highest and best use" is an acknowledgment by an appraiser after a study of all the factors influencing the development......or re-development.....of a property.  There will be a litany of factors that can come into play.  Infrastructure, employment centers, nearness of what kinds of businesses, cost of land, and cost of construction all come into play.  Of course, these are the same factors that a developer brings into play.  Most of it is common sense, but its amazing how often it is misused. 

I don't know the developer that appeared before the City Council the other night requesting approval of his subdivision.  However, I know the land.  I also know the features that the developer was trying to incorporate into the subdivision design.  It  was a compromise between the city's edict about form base codes (trees every 30 feet instead of every 50 feet) and what the market and economic factors was molding into his land study.  You can't put trees exactly every 30 feet with front entry driveways.  It was the best presentation I have ever heard whereby the strictness of Form Base Codes was softened by dictates of cost and market.  What he was proposing was the "highest and best use" of the property.  It was a superlative attempt to meld the market concept and form base codes.   Yet, it was turned down.  Mark Kurbanside, city planner, even admitted that two previous subdivisions had been modified to meet market conditions.  I didn't know that, but I was glad to hear it.  The reasons given for the denial were abysmal.  The project should have been approved.  It would have been a valuable addition to Rowlett's tax base.  Look up the City Council film for the night of April 19, and see who turned down the subdivsion and the reasons used to justify the denial.
 
Now, the land again is just setting there crying out for what was just denied.  Go figure.

I like form base codes when used where intended.  They were designed by a loose confederation of local groups, now organized, known as "New Ubanism."  They were designed to help re-develop high density and  older neighborhoods, usually in major inner city areas.  In every manual I have read about them, it has always said on the front page that these codes are to be meant as a guide only.  They must be used judiciously taking into consideration other (market) factors.  Where densities are not a concern, they offer little aid.  However, they can be buzz words for people that may not even know what they mean.  The next time someone uses "form base codes" in a sentence, ask him/her to explain what they say.  You won't get an answer.  Instead, watch the tap dance.  It's fun to watch.

You must read and listen to all who espouse their leadership qualities.  I know people running for office that I like very much, but I won't vote for them because I feel they  really don't understand development.......even tho they say they do.  I know people that I think are impeccably honest and have the interest of the people of Rowlett at heart.   However, I think their understanding of planning for the future of Rowlett is flawed. 

I am disappointed in the availability of venues whereby the candidates can present their ideas.  There have been a couple, but not much.  The newspapers have been no help.  There is some "rattle" on Facebook and some in email. 

Who do I fault for this?  The citizens of Rowlett.  You have to demand that the candidates tell us what they think.  And.....if you believe everything you're told, you need your butt kicked.

Voting is easy.  Thinking isn't.

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A new beginning

4/21/2016

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(Thanks to a reader, it was pointed out that I incorrectly referred to Bayside as Bayview.  Those changes have been made below.  Sorry.)

If you've read much in this blog site, you've seen me make some reference to "re-branding" of Rowlett.  Essentially, this is nothing more than image building.  It is presenting Rowlett in a manner that influences to the positive what others perceive about Rowlett.  If  others perceive Rowlett as a very good place, some very good things begin to happen.  It takes a little work, but if the proper ingredients are present, the work load is quite acceptable.  

I want to give a little background on a "re-branding" effort and report on some meetings I have attended recently.

I have a friend by the name of Ron Surley.  Ron is consummate sailor.  He lives and breathes the sailing world.  For example, he has spent portions of the past 10 years restoring a magnificent 37 foot sailboat.  His boat is a no kidding "blue water boat"--an ocean going sailboat.  He is nearly complete.  His sails are now on order.  He will be launching soon.  I can't wait to see it on the water.  The boat is a gorgeous traditional boat that is strong as a tank. 

My sailboat is berthed nearby Ron's boat so we have known each other for years.  About a month ago, Ron approached me and asked if I thought I could get the City of Rowlett to sponsor a charity regatta.  The proceeds of the regatta would be donated to a designated charity. 

I liked the idea.  I particularly liked the idea because it dove-tailed nicely into a number of recent events that involved Rowlett.  However, there are a lot of moving parts in an effort such as this.  A couple of old sailors that both need a new pair of top-siders can not make that type of regatta happen by themselves.  It takes participation of others. 

The selection of a charity was really pretty easy, with Rowlett still uncovering from a recent tornado.  Tornado victims were where the money was going to go.  Next we needed to talk to the city.  Ron and I scheduled an appointment with Todd Gottel, mayor, and Brian Funderbunk, city manager.  We had a great meeting and they embraced the basic concept.  They established Jim Proce, assistant city manager, and Angela Smith (recently announced as our new Parks Department leader)  as our "go to" people for liaison with the city.

We then had a meeting with Kent Donahue, developer of the new Bayside development, which was the old Robertson Park land.  Kent liked the idea and he became solidly supportive.  He offered to help in any way he could. We needed to borrow some observation land from Kent.

We then had a meeting with Jim Rosenberg, current owner of the Bayview Marina.  We needed slips to tie up visiting sailboats.  Jim offered us his vacant slips, extra land if needed, and a mailing list for his sailors.  This was a great offer to help.  He is solidly behind us.

Yesterday (Wednesday, April 20) we met with Diane Lemmons and some of her captains from the Rowlett Chamber of Commerce.   They are very important players in this endeavor.  They have the organizational skills and disciplines to produce a bazaar type atmosphere in which Rowlett merchants can display their goods and services. It would be a great opportunity for the consumers in the area to meet the merchants.   These merchants would also donate goods and services to a silent auction, the proceeds of which would go to the charity.  The Chamber and the sailors are the two main ingredients of this event.  It could be an absolute joy to put this together and establish an annual event.  However, we still have some tweaking of the dials to do.  But, we're off to a great start. 

Now, look at what's coming together.  We have always had the lake, but we never did anything with it.  A couple of years ago we got the DART station and the new Bush Tollway.  The North Texas economy took a definite swing to the positive, probably great.  Real estate values started up.  Then, Dallas de-annexed Robertson park, Donahue Development purchased 257 acres of Robertson Park, and the City of Rowlett annexed the park land. This  put Rowlett right on  Interstate 30, in the middle of a 23,000 acre lake, with DART and Bush Tollway nearby, in a bustling economy. 

The above was enough to gloat about, but then a tornado put Rowlett right in the middle of the national spotlight.  Furthermore, Donahue announced the start of construction of a premier development in the old Robertson Park site that also made national news. 

Everything has come together nicely to announce a "remodeled" Rowlett, with upscale housing and commercial development.  Rowlett can now tout the 20 miles of shoreline on Lake Ray Hubbard, and take steps to develop the shoreline with upscale product.  Rowlett can brag about short drive times to the new 30,000 jobs being created in Plano, and DART that can take you to a major league ball game, numerous employment centers,  or an international airport. 

I couldn't have written a better script.

Now, the final piece to fit into place is you, the Rowlett citizens.  You have got to embrace the charity regatta, and join Donahue to brag about the new Bayside developments.  You've got to "talk up" the fact that Rowlett is a water community, with 20 miles of shoreline and "On the Water and On the Move" really means something.

Together, we can make Rowlett the hottest real estate market in DFW.   What's that mean to you?  What do you think the value of your house will do if Rowlett is re-invented as set out above?  What do you think your tax rate will do if 100's of millions of dollars is added to the tax base?

Folks, it's called quality of life.  It pays money.  I want some.





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Really busy.....long story.

4/14/2016

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You ever hear of Murphy's Law?   Well, simply stated, Murphy's Law says that if someone can put an airplane wing on  upside down while building a new airplane, someone will.  That is what my week has been like.  Frontier has purchased Verizon.com.  That should be all I have to say.  Both companies have proven without doubt that you can get a job shortly after completing the third grade.  

However, in that shambles, there is something that is endearing and a reminder that we live in Rowlett.  With all of Rowlett's little foibles, it is still a great place to live.   I have to tell a story. 

My neighbor is a retired widower.  He is a great guy, altho because of him, I have to keep my grass mowed.  Gardening, his lawn, and landscaping are his hobbies.  There isn't a blade of grass out of place in his lawn.  In the past, when I mowed our own lawn, we would meet at mid-lot every Saturday morning.  I would be mowing from the front of my lot toward the back.  He would be mowing from the back of his lot toward the front.  Every time we passed each other, I would curse him out.  If it wasn't for him, I wouldn't have to mow my lot.  

Anyhow, a couple of days ago, he came running over to our house.  He had locked himself out of his house, and he thought he had left something on the stove.  We called every locksmith in Rowlett and Rockwall looking for a locksmith that could get to his house within a reasonable time.  No luck.  The nearest service we could get was three hours out.  It was almost panic time or break a window time.   It would probably take a week to get a window fixed after the tornado. 

Someone said, "Maybe we can call the fire department."  I thought, "What a ridiculous idea."  Everybody looked at one another.  Then someone said, "Why not?"  No one had an answer.  Then, my neighbor picked up the phone and called the fire department.  The person on the other end listened to the story.  Then she said she would call right back.  She did.  I answered the phone.  She said a truck would be right over.  I was standing out front.  In a couple of minutes a very red fire truck pull up and three firemen popped out.  One got a pry bar.  In two minutes my neighbor was in his house. 

We were all very delighted.  We all shook hands and we thanked them profusely.  Then, they drove off into the sunset, never leaving a silver bullet.  Someone down the street yelled, "There they go.....our Fire Department," and wiped a tear from their eye. 

Ain't Rowlett grand, or what?  Try getting that done in St. Louis.

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Wow!!

4/9/2016

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I literally could not turn on TV, check Facebook, or read email yesterday without running into some news about Bayside, Rowlett's new real estate development.   Of course, Donahue Development is the facilitator of the development and Rowlett gets the ad valorem tax. 

Folks, the news isn't an exaggeration.  It will be at least as good as promised.  This is an unbelievable stroke of good fortune for Rowlett.  It could not have come at a better time.  

I have been an advocate for the development of this site for many years.  Below are copies of three newspaper columns I wrote in 2007 and 2008.

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You  can increase the size of the print by holding down the Control button and pressing down the (plus) + key.
_______________________
This project will definitely be fun to watch.


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A new beginning

4/7/2016

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Some of the best news I have heard in a very long time was the announcement yesterday that the development of the new Bayside development (old Robertson Park) was soon beginning.   It is beginning with a huge opening act; the construction of an  eight acre pool and a towering water fountain.   Eventually, everything in Bayside will overshadow any development that has been in Rowlett since the town's incorporation.  Estimates have been made that perhaps $1 Billion will be spent developing the whole site.

This will also be the beginning of a new Rowlett.  The old Rowlett will become an heirloom........one that is steadily increasing in value.   Rowlett will become a new destination for all in the metroplex.  The plans for the development are staggering.

It is a credit to the developer of Bayside that they chose to start with a value producing facility  that is open to the public.  It is also very smart.  It will definitely enhance the value of the remaining 250+- acres.  It will also start the value enhancement of your homes.  After completion of Bayside, it will definitely take some pressure off your Rowlett tax bill. 

In 2008, I wrote a column in the Dallas Morning News  advocating that Rowlett purchase Robertson Park, hire a very savvy developer to guide Rowlett "officialdom" thru the development minefields, and develop Robertson Park ourselves.  Some things changed over the years and eventually the park was sold to Donahue Development and Rowlett annexed the land into the city. 

Folks, this is a better plan than I pleaded for.  There is far less chance that mistakes can be made along the way.  I have absolutely no doubt that Rowlett "officialdom" could have been in over their heads.  It was absolutely mandatory that a savvy developer was along for the ride. 

The entry of Donahue Development solved nearly all those problems.  I could not have written a better script.  It is now mandatory that the City of Rowlett does not put unwarranted speed bumps in the way.  No one, including me, wants shoddy construction and misguided marketing and planning of development.  I have some ominous feelings about Rowlett "officialdom's" maniacal convictions that Form Base Codes work everywhere, even under water.    I have a well founded hunch that Donahue Development has considerably more experience at "super" development than our Planning Department.  Has our Planning Department ever built anything?  Have they ever costed anything?  Have they ever developed a production schedule?  Have they ever conducted a market survey?   Stated simply, I just want our leadership and Planning department to use good common sense.  

I have my own opinions about the good and bad of Form Base Codes, however I would like to cite an example of dubious value.  I heard from a source I consider very reliable that our new Dairy Queen cost $500K more and took six months longer to build because of our Form Base Codes.  I know Dairy Queen has been building ice cream stores for about 50 years.  I think by now they probably have the hang of it, particularly since they occupy their own buildings that they build.  I wonder how long it's going to take Dairy Queen to recapture the additional cost for Form Base Codes, whether needed, or not. 

Get ready, folks.  It's gonna get fun around here.

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Visiting our "assets"

4/4/2016

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I probably don't know much about rocket science, nor brain surgery, nor E=MC2, but I know a little bit about residential subdivision development.   I have worked on several hundred subdivisions over the years.  I have visited each one 7-10 times during the development process.  I have disbursed hundreds of millions of dollars in behalf of my lending bosses.  In fact, I am still doing it.  Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that my current real estate lending clients seem to think I know what I'm doing. 

I have made a few predictions on Rowlett's first Form Base Code subdivision.  It was touted to be the best thing since canned beer.   Of course, it is Homestead at Liberty Grove.  It was paraded in front of all the Rowlett citizens as the premier design of all residential real estate development. 

Let me go on record, here.  I like Form Base Codes.  I also like New Urbanism, the sire of Form Base Codes.  When applied as intended, Form Base Code is an intelligent application of modern development logic.  However, Form Base Codes do not work universally.   They were originally conceived for inter-city redevelopment.  That would simplistically mean, "tear down or rebuild the old in urban, high density areas, and rebuild to better codes."  That is where Form Base Codes work the best.  In that environment, I am solidly behind Form Base Codes.  Unfortunately, cow pastures are not urban settings.

Homestead was our first FBC subdivision.  I had early misgivings, but I was in the minority.  I hoped that it would work. I was not so much worried about the lifestyle offered of FBC subdivisions in Rowlett as I was the market acceptance.  The lifestyle is fine, with encouragement of neighborhood walking, easy access to parks, and denser housing.  I do believe the opportunity for neighbors to get to know one another in higher density neighborhoods, is real.  However, ALL people don't want high density living.  They want more land with bigger yards.  These people make up a measurable market.

I believe most people that make up this market move into the suburbs.  If they wanted higher density living, they would move into higher density areas, nearer the core area of any major city.   Do I mean everybody?  No, but I do believe the majority market is made up of these people desiring lower density.  This is not just true of Rowlett, but of most suburb markets.  However, I do believe that some newer development could be done in suburbs for those desiring higher density living.  It does not have to be exclusively either.  I worried about the marketability of Homestead.  It was, and still remains unproven.  If it fails, it would put Rowlett in a very bad light.

Rowlett leadership has taken the position that anything worth developing must be based on Form Base Codes.  I feel this position was heavily influenced by our previous city manager.  I have often written that our previous city manager was the worst real estate analyst I have ever known in such a top municipal position.  I still believe it.  The Homestead of Liberty Grove is a direct result of her influence.

Now, lets look at what we have.  Homestead will have been under development for two years at the end of May.  They are just now completing the last access street into Old Princeton Road.  It's a bizarre intersection, but it will work.  The subdivision is probably not far from final acceptance by the city. 

This project is probably a year behind a schedule that should have been.  This takes into account three months of very unusual heavy rainfall last spring.  I added three months to a normal production schedule for this type of subdivision.  I have overseen several subdivisions that started and finished development in this same time frame.  Homestead has been a  terrible production rate for residential development. 

We were first told "several" builders would be building in the subdivision.  I understood this to be four or five builders.  This is what the developer told us while I was on council.  What he didn't know was that I already knew one of his builders had declared bankruptcy.  Still, we were told "several" builders were going to build.  Then, we were told the lots were sold.  Then we were told D. R. Horton was going to buy all of the lots.  Then, we were told Horton walked on the deal because he could not work out satisfactory details with the city on Form Base Codes.  Then, we were told Weekley Homes and Cambridge Homes bought all the lots.    That's the last I heard on sale of the lots. 

But, something was missing.  There is no evidence of builders.

Let me explain.  A few weeks ago, the developer requested of city council that they approve the "set back" of several of the lot's front building line from 15 feet to 10 feet.  Essentially, that created a larger footprint in which to locate the house.  However, that puts the house only 10 feet from the deed line.  But, that's another  story.  What this means is that the builder never purchased the lots.  I know Weekley Homes very well.  I once made him a $5 million revolving construction loan.  I know Cambridge Homes by reputation.  People, neither of these builders are stupid.  In fact, these builders are some of the best in the business.  They would have never gone to contract on any lots that would not serve their houses.  That means, a few weeks ago, the lots were probably still not sold. 

Furthermore, most cities issue model home building permits near the end of the land development cycle.  Even though the subdivision would have not yet been accepted by the city, this would give the builders time to build their two or three models and maybe get a few pre-sales in their inventory before applying for production building permits.  This is almost typical.  The builder's marketing efforts are underway at least a month before the subdivisions are finished. 

In Homestead's case, nothing, nada, zip.  No signage at all.  I drove thru the subdivsion today.  There was no evidence of any home building activity.  The subdivision is substantially complete, lacking little. 

Now, my marketing worries are for real.  Not only have we not proved the houses will sell, we can't even prove the builders are buying the lots.  I fear they're having second thoughts about the marketability of the lots and subdivsion acceptance of the buying public.  If so, Homestead is going to be a horrible embarrassment to Rowlett. 

To compound the problem, the city council turned down two subdivisions that beautifully fit the current residential marketplace.  These two subdivisions would have been contributing approximately $600K per week to our tax base.  (One house per week per subdivision; a proven  absorption rate in the $300K and up market.)

Folks, there's been some fibbing going on someplace.  Rowlett's "officialdom" stuck their neck way out on this one.  I lay this project right at the feet of the previous city manager. 




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